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Shale oil could boost global GDP by $2.7 tn a year: PwC   Sources - 14th February 2013, Indian Express


Worldwide shale oil production could add $2.7 trillion to the global economy annually by 2035 by slashing the price of crude by as much as $50 a barrel, PwC said on Thursday.

Shale oil production could surge to 14 million barrels per day, or as much as 12 percent of total oil output from around 1 percent now, as it expands from its U.S. base over the next two decades, the world's largest accounting firm said in a report.

That could lift global gross domestic product by between 2.3 percent and 3.7 percent per year by 2035, according to the report, "Shale oil: the next energy revolution".

"Lower global oil prices due to increased shale oil supply could have a major impact on the future evolution of the world economy by allowing more output to be produced at the same cost," John Hawksworth, chief economist at PwC and co-author of the report, said.

Bigger flows of shale oil will not increase overall consumption substantially, because demand is not heavily dependent on price, but it will cut the cost of fuel, Adam Lyons, director of PwC's oil and gas strategy team, said.

"One effect will be to cut the need for expensive, environmentally destructive extraction techniques like the Arctic and tar sands," he added.

The rapid growth in shale oil has not been factored into price projections by the two major international oil agencies - the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and Paris-based International Energy Agency, the report said.

Current global oil demand amounts to 80-90 million barrels per day (bpd), and the agencies estimate it will increase to around 110 million bpd by 2035.

"Their projections ... are arguably conservative as they are based only on resources about which there is already a high degree of certainty," the report said.

"Past experience of shale oil and shale gas suggests that these resource estimates are likely to be revised upwards significantly over time."

 
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